A new report entitled ``Nigerian Unity in the Balance” authored for
the United States Army War College has, again, warned Nigerian leaders
to beware of another civil war or an outright break-up following what it
called ongoing divisive trends in the country.
The report released by the Strategic Studies Institute of War College
was written by two former American servicemen, Gerald McLaughlin and
Clarence J. Bouchat. McLaughlin is a graduate of the U.S. Army War
College while Bouchat is also an adjunct professor at the U.S. Army War
College (USAWC)
The report, whose foreword was written by the
Director, Strategic Studies, Institute and U.S. Army War College Press,
Professor Douglas Lovelace, observed that divisive forces were becoming
more stronger than uniting forces in Nigeria, warning that unless this
was reversed, Nigeria`s existence could be jeopardised.
According to the report, “Parochial interests created by religious,
cultural, ethnic, economic, regional, and political secessionist
tendencies are endemic in Nigeria. Under such stresses, Nigerian unity
may fail.
“Should Nigeria’s leaders mismanage the political economy and
reinforce centrifugal forces in Nigeria, the breaks to create autonomous
regions or independent countries would likely occur along its
previously identified fault lines,” the report warned.
“Having already experienced one brutal civil war, Nigeria is at risk
for a recurrence of conflict or dissolution, especially since some of
the underpinning motivations of the war remain unresolved,`` the report
observed, detailing many fault lines speeding up disintegrative
tendencies in the country.
“Indeed, East Timor, Eritrea, Croatia, and Somaliland indicate that
the weakest point of failing states is along colonial borders. Of more
interest for Nigerian unity is that this may also occur between regions
separately administered by a common colonial power, as occurred between
Malaysia and Singapore, and North and South Sudan, where differences
proved irreconcilable after the departure of British administration. At
least, some of the resulting regions and states of a possible Nigerian
devolution may divide along such internal lines”, the report projected.
While conceding that Nigeria’s fate is primarily in the hands of
Nigerians, the report noted that such could be positively affected by
actions of the US, adding that “Nigeria’s future is in balance and the
United States should help tip the scales.”
The report particularly warned that religious differences were taking
the centre-stage in the emerging conflict situation in the country,
disputing repeated reports that economic reasons were to blame for the
insurgency and other conflicts in the country.
The Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) is part of the U.S. Army War
College and is the strategic-level study agent for issues related to
national security and military strategy with emphasis on geostrategic
analysis.
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