Less than
24 hours before the polling stations open, Scotland's fate rests in the
hands of more than 350,000 voters who don't know what to do.
Three
polls released last night each have the No campaign ahead by four
points, with the Yes campaign closing the gap on the unionists.
But
with so many voters still in the undecided camp, it is anyone's guess
which way the result will swing – with even leading pollsters admitting
their data is worthless.
One
new poll announced today asked undecided voters to imagine they were
standing in the voting booth now, and slightly more voted No instead.
The decision of whether or not Scotland remains in the Union now lies with those who can't make up their mind
It
also today emerged that Yes Scotland are funding people carriers to take
300,000 voters to polling stations tomorrow, sparking fears it could
tip the balance in their favour.
Three
surveys last night – by Survation for the Daily Mail, Opinium for the
Daily Telegraph, and ICM for The Scotsman all gave No a slender lead of
52 per cent to 48 per cent.
The 350,000 undecided voters make up 8% of the electorate, meaning they will prove decisive.
Survation
boss Damian Lyons Low admitted the undecided voters hold the key after
his results showed 44.1 per cent of Scots plan to back independence, up
from 42.4 per cent in a comparable poll from last week.
Support
for a No vote remains virtually static at 47.7 per cent, with 8.3 per
cent undecided. Overall, this points to a final result of 52 per cent No
and 48 per cent Yes.
Mr
Low said: 'In terms of the race itself, with 8 per cent of the
electorate still undecided, there is still everything to fight for and
this poll should leave no room for complacency for the Better Together
campaign.'
A new poll today by Panelbase, their final referendum poll, has 50 per cent voting No compared to 45 per cent voting Yes.
The
undecided were at 5 per cent, but when asked to imagine they were
standing in the polling booth slightly more went for No instead.
When added to the original totals it would see a win for No at 53 per cent to 47 per cent.
A
separate poll, by Ipsos-Mori for STV, showed the race even tighter -
with 49 per cent on Yes and 51 per cent saying no, excluding the five
per cent of Don't Knows.
Yesterday,
ICM chief Martin Boon admitted the polling industry could be facing its
biggest embarrassment since the 1992 general election, when it
predicted a Neil Kinnock victory, only for John Major to win.
With so many unknown voters, the polling date could be completely skewed by which way they swing.
Mr Boon said: 'This referendum has the potential to be a polling Waterloo, the biggest since 1992 when the polls got it wrong.
'I
think and hope that the best that we in the industry can hope for is
that we dodge a bullet, but it's entirely possible the bullets do start
spraying our way.
'We are dependent on a pot of people which is defined, but we don't know how big it is and in my view it won't be big enough.
Another unknown factor is how they will react to the tactics of bullying and intimidation carried out by the nationalists.
With each day bringing fresh allegations against Yes supporters, this could lead to a surge for support for the unionists.
Although
it is impossible to accurately predict the way the undecided voters go,
a study carried out last year suggests David Cameron's decision to
offer 'devo-max' in the event of a No vote could win it for the
unionists.
ScotCen
Social Research carried out an in depth study into undecided voters,
and found that a significant number said they were unsure on how to vote
because 'devo max' was not then on the ballot paper.
Mr
Cameron has faced growing criticism for not having 'devo-max' as a
third option on the ballot paper, which unionists believe would have
heavily reduced support for a Yes vote.
A study by ScotCen Social Research into undecided voters found a substantial number want 'devo max'
Vow: The promise to Scotland's voters was delivered on the front page of the left-wing Daily Record newspaper
However – after the controversial decision to pledge a whole range of sweeping new powers to Scotland – 'devo max' is now on the ballot paper as a No vote.
The
ScotCen report, published last year, concluded: 'Crucially, a
significant group of people appear to be undecided because they feel
neither of the options on the ballot paper conforms to their views.
'For them, the exclusion of devo max from the ballot paper has presented them with a particularly difficult choice.
'If
either campaign is to win over a substantial number of undecided
voters, they will evidently have to convince them that they present the
best alternative to being able to vote for more devolution.'
With
so many of the undecided still to play for, rivals on both sides of the
referendum debate were today out in force for one final day of
campaigning before the historic ballot.
Mr Salmond will deliver his final message to the people of Scotland ahead of the referendum at a rally in Perth tonight.
The study also showed that the biggest proportion of undecided voters were in the age group 25-34
Counting: Collections of ballot boxes to be used at polling stations being carried around Edinburgh
Poll: Signs being put up at a polling station in Aberdeen
Alistair
Darling, who as leader of Better Together has been spearheading the
campaign to keep the UK together, is also speaking at a special 'Love
Scotland Vote No' event.
Mr
Darling, who was chancellor in the last Labour government, was joined
there by former prime minister Gordon Brown, with the two men arguing
that staying in the UK will bring 'faster, better, safer change' to
Scotland
Better
Together has pledged to campaign all day and throughout the night as it
continues its efforts to secure a No vote on Thursday.
Scottish
Labour leader Johann Lamont and her deputy Anas Sarwar will speak to
night shift workers at a newspaper plant in the early hours of this
morning, stressing their pledge to devolve more powers to Scotland in
the event of a No vote.
Yes supporters gather at a rally in Glasgow as the vote draws near
Rangers supporters hold a Union flag outside Ibrox Stadium ahead of the Scottish League Cup match
Liberal
Democrat Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander will team up
with Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson on a visit to a
warehouse, while activists will be at railway stations across Scotland
handing out leaflets to early morning commuters
Blair
McDougall, campaign director of Better Together, said: 'Unlike Alex
Salmond who is on a helicopter victory tour, Better Together is
campaigning through the night for a No vote.
'Better
Together campaigners are working tirelessly to spread the message that
there will be better, faster, safer change with a No vote for a stronger
Scotland, while Alex Salmond's political project for separation risks
jobs, pensions and the NHS.'
The
First Minister, however, has urged Scots to consider how they could
feel the morning after the referendum when casting their vote, saying
they could 'wake up on Friday morning to the first day of a better
country'.
Meanwhile,
fears have been raised today that violent clashes could break out
between Yes and No supporters after pubs were granted special licences
to keep serving alcohol all through tomorrow night into Friday morning.
Bars
across Scotland will now be open throughout the count, which is not
supposed to be finished until 6am on Friday at the earliest.
Labour leader Ed Miliband was jostled by angry Yes supporters during a visit to an Edinburgh shopping centre
Alex Salmond faces an anxious wait to find out how the undecided voters will decidethe fate of the Yes campaign
With
the mood in Scotland turning increasingly bitter amidst toxic
allegations of bullying and intimidation, senior politicians and police
officers described the plan for all-night drinking as ‘absolute
madness’.
One
senior officer said there were real concerns that tempers are running
so high street fighting could break out between Yes and No supporters,
particularly in built up areas.
The concerns have come about as damning evidence mounts up about the bullying intimidation of voters by Scottish nationalists.
Pro-union voters have endured stone-throwing, been called traitors and faced threats that their houses will be torched.
Many
are now said to be too scared to show their support for fear of
reprisals that might follow a defeat for the nationalists in tomorrow’s
vote.
Also,
Labour leader Ed Miliband was forced to abandon a visit to an Edinburgh
shopping centre after he was surrounded by Yes supporters who jostled
him and branded him a ‘****ing liar’. His minders had to step in to
escort him to safety.
Meanwhile,
banks have been transferring millions of banknotes from England into
Scotland ahead of tomorrow's referendum amidst fears of a run on cash
machines if the country votes for independence.
It
is still not clear what currency would be used in an independent
Scotland, meaning that some Scots could rush to withdraw as many pounds
as possible in the event of a Yes vote.
In
anticipation of the poll, extra supplies of cash have been moved north
of the border to reassure Scottish account-holders that they will have
access to their money, according to reports.
DAILYMAIL.CO.UK
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