Andreas Krieg is a Middle East security analyst at King's
College London in Qatar:
Overall, I think this
video is an act of desperation. IS is on the defensive particularly in
Iraq.
Although I do not
think that they can be defeated militarily, they nonetheless face considerable
obstacles.
First, domestically
it will become increasingly difficult to administer the territory they hold and
to control its inhabitants through coercion only.
They have failed to
appeal to the people they control. Some pledged allegiance for pragmatic reasons
and some out of fear, but the vast majority of people reject IS’
ideology.
IS are seen as
external forces as well, mostly staffed with foreign mujahedeen often not
speaking any Arabic and little knowledge of Islam.
So not being able to
consolidate public support is their major weakness. Second, IS has not been able
to advance on the Iraqi front any further.
Yet, they need
military operational successes in order to fuel the propaganda machine. So far
they still have vast stretches of territory in Northern Syria they can easily
overrun.
But if a proxy in
Syria could be found that the West felt comfortable to prop up, IS might face
military stalemate there as well.
So overall, IS is not
in as good a situation long-term as many in the West make it out to
be.
These videos
certainly give the impression to fearful Western publics that IS is omnipotent
and that even superpowers such as the US cannot do anything to stop
them.
If they fail in Syria
and Iraq, which can happen if Sunni tribesmen in Western and Northern Iraq
withdrew their consent and allegiance, they might have to look for battleground
elsewhere (Chechnya might be such as place).
Yet, these irrational
threats made against Russia should not be taken seriously.
As IS is an
organization with flat hierarchies, many of the various fighting cells and
propaganda cells can distribute messages and propaganda without actually
representing the organization’s grand strategy or vision, if there is
any.
The threatened
British hostage, who UK media are not naming at the request of the family but
who has been named and pictured around the world, is believed to be an aid
worker that was based on the Turkish border of Syria working with victims of
war.
Members of the
hostage's family, including his brother, were on their way to his parents home
last night to comfort them it is understood, according to the Telegraph. The
newspaper quoted an unidentified relation as saying: 'We not allowed to say
anything.'
The 44-year-old aid
worker from central Scotland is believed to have been taken hostage in a refugee
camp near the north Syrian village of Atmeh in March last year, shortly after
arriving in the country on a short-term contract.
He is understood to
have previously worked in South Sudan in 2012, where a former colleague found
him to be 'a very solid, stand-up guy. The sort of person you can rely on,'
according to The Times.
During his year in
captivity, the man has seen at least six of his fellow hostages freed - one
Italian, one Dane and four French - after their governments paid an estimated £5
million ransom per person.
It remains unclear
whether the British man's captors have tired to negotiate a ransom for his
release.
Following the release of Sotloff's execution footage,
another video emerged showing ISIS militants personally threatening to kill
Russian president Vladimir Putin if he doesn't declare Chechnya an independent
state
The ISIS militants sit in the cockpit of a captured
Russian-made fighter aircraft to make threats against Putin
WAS THE STEVEN SOTLOFF EXECUTION
VIDEO POSTED ONLINE BY ACCIDENT?
The video of Steven
Sotloff's brutal murder may have been accidentally published online too early by
an ISIS Twitter user who jumped the gun.
When news first broke
of a new ISIS beheading video, it was not widely available on Islamist websites.
James Foley's execution footage, by contrast, flooded social media and the dark
corners of the web all at once.
Vocative.com reports
that only one ISIS Twitter account initially posted the video.
Another
ISIS-affiliated social media account called out the early release and told the
user to remove it – but by then, the video was already widely available
online.
Later, ISIS even
issued an apology to its followers for the confusion.
'Clarification about
the mistake was made by 'Uyun al-Ummah' account, that has published the video
before the official time,' an ISIS official wrote.
'The user saw a tweet
with the video and thought it was published officially. We tried to remove the
video after we understood that his was published by mistake, and we are sorry to
the followers of the Islamic State.'
The social media
back-and-forth – all of it in Arabic – shows just how sophisticated the social
media strategy for ISIS has become.
It appears multiple
people had copies of the video and that they were meant to wait until the
proscribed time to publish it – in order to flood online channels and ensure it
was widely distributed.
After this morning's
Cobra meeting Home Secretary Theresa May said: 'We are looking at the video that
was produced yesterday.
'Yet again we see a
barbaric act being undertaken by Isil, who are group of murderous psychopaths.
Their brutality is clear.
'Our thoughts today
must, of course, be with Steven Sotloff's family and friends at this very
difficult time.
'As far as the
Government is concerned, we recognise the threat that is posed by Isil and we
are taking steps, and will continue to take steps, to make sure we have the
powers that are right to protect our national security.
'Our determination to
deal with this remains and, as the Prime Minister made clear in the House of
Commons on Monday, we are looking at a number of areas of potential legislation
where increased powers could help to fill some gaps that there might be in our
current ability to deal with these issues.'
This morning Barack
Obama said that the U.S. will not be intimidated by ISIS and will build a
coalition to 'degrade and destroy' the group.
Obama still did not
give a timeline for deciding on a strategy to go after the extremist group's
operations in Syria, saying: 'It'll take time to roll them back.'
He vowed the U.S.
would not forget the 'terrible crime against these two fine young men,' meaning
Sotloff and Foley.
'Our reach is long
and justice will be served,' Obama said adding that he will continue to fight
the militant threat and the 'barbaric and ultimately empty vision' it
represents.
'Our objective is to
make sure that ISIL is not an ongoing threat to the region,' he said, using an
alternative acronym for the militant group.
'And we can
accomplish that. It's going to take some time and it's going to take some
effort.'
Former Labour Foreign
Secretary Jack Straw backed the government's stance. 'This idea of a knee-jerk
reaction should be pushed aside,' he told BBC Radio 4's Today
programme.
'We need people to
look seriously and soberly at the situation.'
He warned against
being 'paralysed by the past' in the wake of the 2003 Iraq invasion.
In the video, Mr
Sotloff - a freelancer for Time magazine among other publications - is pictured
in a Guantanamo Bay-style orange jump suit against a desert backdrop.
He addresses U.S.
President Barack Obama directly, saying: 'You've spent billions of pounds US
taxpayers' dollars and we have lost thousands of our troops in our previous
fighting against the Islamic State, so where is the people's interest in
reigniting this war?'
The jihadist,
believed to be a Briton nicknamed 'John' by captives,says: 'I am back, Obama,
and I am back because of your arrogant foreign policy towards the Islamic State,
because of your insistence on continuing your bombings and ... on Mosul Dam,
despite our serious warnings.
'Just as your
missiles continue to strike our people, our knife will continue to strike the
necks of your people.'
PM EXPECTED TO COME UNDER FRESH
PRESSURE TO JOIN U.S. AIRSTRIKES AGAINST ISIS TARGETS
David Cameron is
likely to come under pressure at Prime Minister's Questions to step up Britain's
military involvement.
On Monday, before
details of the British hostage were made public, he faced repeated calls in the
Commons for the UK to join the US in air strikes.
Former Defence
Secretary Liam Fox asked the PM: 'In what circumstances would the United Kingdom
decide to join, rather than simply support, US air strikes on ISIL military
positions?'
Sir Gerald Howarth, a
former Minister for International Security Strategy, said: 'ISIL represents a
substantial threat to the continued integrity of Iraq, and American airstrikes
have been successful in halting its further advance. Would it not be better for
the Royal Air Force to join in that measure?'
Mr Cameron repeatedly
stressed that while he supported US air strikes, his judgement to date has been
for Britain to 'provide aid and political support and to help with certain
military aspects'.
But he suggested that
if the circumstances changed, he could order strikes without consulting
Parliament.
'If there was a
direct threat to British national interests, or if, as in the case of Libya, we
had to act very rapidly to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe, the British
Government must reserve the right to act immediately and inform the House of
Commons afterwards,' he said.
Dressed in black and
wielding a short knife, the extremist also warns other governments against
entering 'this evil alliance of America against the Islamic State'.
The video, which ends
with a threat to the British hostage, has surfaced in the week that world
leaders are due to gather in Wales for a NATO summit.
Mr Obama boarded Air
Force One last night without giving a response to the video, and landed in
Estonia a short time ago, ahead of talks with leaders of the Baltic states over
the ongoing crisis in Ukraine and concerns over the threat posed by Russia for
other former Soviet states.
In a statement last
night, Mr Cameron said: 'If verified, this is a despicable and barbaric murder.
My thoughts and prayers are with Mr Sotloff's family and friends as they deal
with this appalling and tragic situation.'
'As I have said
consistently over the last few weeks, [ISIS] terrorists speak for no
religion...They threaten Syrians, Iraqis, Americans and British people alike and
make no distinction between Muslims, Christians or any other faith.
'We have already been
working hard to keep British people safe and we will continue to do all we can
to protect our country and our people from these barbaric terrorists.
In a brief statement,
a spokesman for Mr Sotloff's family said they 'know of this horrific tragedy and
are grieving privately'.
The journalist was
seized in Syria in August 2013 and had not been seen until he appeared in the
video of Mr Foley's killing released by IS on August 20.
Last week Mr
Sotloff's mother Shirley made an emotional video plea for the extremists to be
'merciful' and spare her son.
'Absolutely disgusting': David Cameron has hit out at the
killers that have beheaded a second US journalist and threatened to kill a
British hostage. He chaired a Cobra meeting to establish Britain's response this
morning
In the video released
last night, Sotloff, 31, appears in a orange jumpsuit before he is beheaded by
an Islamic State fighter.
The executioner tells
the camera: 'I'm back, Obama, and I'm back because of your arrogant foreign
policy towards the Islamic State.'
Sotloff, 31, from
Miami, who freelanced for Time and Foreign Policy magazines, vanished in Syria
in August 2013 and was not seen again until he appeared in a video released
online last month that showed Foley's beheading.
In the new video that
shows the killing of Sotloff, the executioner points his knife menacingly at the
camera as he speaks.
Clad in the same
black garb he wore during Foley's execution, the killer has a pistol strapped
under his arm in a shoulder holster.
The black flag of the
Islamic State can be seen waving in the background.
Sotloff calmly read a
statement moments before his murder. 'I'm sure you know exactly who I am by now
and why I am appearing,' he says.
He adds to the
camera: 'Obama, your foreign policy of intervention in Iraq was supposed to be
for preservation of American lives and interests, so why is it that I am paying
the price of your interference with my life?'
While he speaks, a
militant calmly holds a knife at his side and stands next to Sotloff.
The man then taunts
Obama on camera.
Sotloff's mother had pleaded for his release last week in
a video directed at the Islamic State group
Sotloff's death was extensively covered by Israeli media,
which identified the 31-year-old reporter as Jewish
Sotloff's mother had
pleaded for his release last week in a video directed at the Islamic State
group.
Addressing the leader
of the Islamic State group by name, Shirley Sotloff said in a video her son was
'an innocent journalist' who shouldn't pay for U.S. government actions in the
Middle East over which he has no control.
White House Press
Secretary Josh Earnest offered his sympathies to the Sotloff family. He said of
the video: 'This is something that the administration has obviously been
watching carefully since this threat against Mr. Sotloff's life was originally
made a few weeks ago,' he added.
'I'm not in a
position to confirm the authenticity of that video, or reports, obviously,' he
cautioned, 'since I just walked out here.'
'But if there is a
video that has been released, it is something that will be analyzed very
carefully by the U.S. government and our intelligence officials to determine its
authenticity.'
ISIS MURDERED 770 MEN IN MASS
EXECUTIONS AFTER SEIZING CONTROL OF THE IRAQI CITY OF TIKRIT IN JUNE, TOP HUMAN
RIGHTS GROUP CLAIMS
ISIS militants killed
up to 770 men in mass executions at five locations in Tikrit after seizing the
city in northern Iraq in June, according to new evidence produced by a top human
rights organisation.
Human Rights Watch
used videos and satellite imagery, as well information from a survivor of the
killings, to identify a further three mass execution sites, tripling the
estimated number of victims - all or most of them thought to be captured Iraqi
army soldiers.
And the group's
researchers believe the actual number killed could be much higher.
The day after taking
control of Tikrit - the home town of former dictator Saddam Hussein - on June
11, ISIS claimed to have killed 1,700 'Shia members of the army' and posted
videos of hundreds of men in civilian clothing who it claimed were surrendered
soldiers.
ISIS militants lead away a group of captured Iraqi
soldiers after seizing the city of Tikrit on June 14
Photos released on
social media later showed captives being loaded on to trucks and forced to lie
with hands bound in three shallow trenches, where masked gunmen were pictured
apparently firing weapons at them.
On June 27, Human
Rights Watch identified two of the trenches in a field near Tikrit's Water
Palace, where it estimated that 160-190 men died.
Later analysis of a
new video released by IS suggests that at least two previously-unknown rounds of
executions also took place at the palace, with between 115 and 140 deaths, said
HRW.
The organisation has
now identified three further sites, where it believes hundreds more killings
took place, bringing the number of deaths for which evidence is available to
between 560 and 770.
DAILYMAI.CO.UK
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