Wounded?
Islamic State chief Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is said to be among those
targeted in a U.S. airstrike on a convoy in northern Iraq
The ‘kill mission’ against Islamic State boss Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi carries chilling echoes of TV show Homeland where the chief terror suspect Haissam Haqqani is supposedly killed in a drone attack.
In
the Channel 4 series, the Taliban mastermind battling CIA station chief
Carrie Mathieson is very much alive, pulling the insurgent strings from
his perfect hiding place and spinning a web of lies to dupe the
Americans.
I
wonder if al-Baghdadi is doing the same. It would certainly suit him to
play dead for a while - plus, he's risen from beyond the grave before.
Even
now, the Pentagon is seeking to confirm whether coalition air strikes
have critically injured or even managed to kill the elusive ‘caliph’ –
and we are none the wiser.
Could it be telling that the news of his death apparently leaked out from ISIS itself?
So far, U.S. officials are working on inference.
Late
on Friday night, American warplanes hit a ten-car convoy southwest of
Mosul, which functions as ISIS’s capital in northern Iraq.
Among
the 20 people thought to have been killed was Auf Abdulrahman Elefery,
who is known by his code name Abu Sajar, a key aide to Baghdadi.
If
Abu Sajar was there, it is likely that Baghdadi was too, though he may
also be among the casualties who were rushed to Mosul hospitals, where
there were urgent appeals over loudspeakers for blood donations.
According
to Iraqi sources, parallel attacks on Qaim in Anbar province killed one
of the terror group's top strategists in a predominantly Sunni region
where ISIS has made huge military advances in recent weeks as the
world’s attention was distracted by its relentless siege of Kobane in
northern Syria.
Normally
so effusive on social media, ISIS are being strangely coy about the
losses it may have sustained this weekend, though it has started
arresting former members of the Iraqi army lest they are providing the
US with actionable intelligence.
ISIS is probably scouring their deep substitute bench for replacements for anyone killed, including Baghdadi himself.
In the Channel 4 series, the Taliban
mastermind battling CIA station chief Carrie Mathieson (pictured) is
very much alive, pulling the strings from his perfect hiding place and
spinning a web of lies to dupe the Americans
Baghdadi
has made a lifelong virtue of anonymity, especially since his Al Qaeda
mentor, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi was killed in a U.S. bombing raid in 2006.
Except
for his brief appearance in Mosul in July to proclaim himself Caliph
(an office that fuses political and religious leadership), Baghdadi has
kept a low profile, so that the fate of ISIS does not appear to hinge on
his personal survival.
It also offers the perfect cover should Baghdadi wish to disappear for a while, Homeland-style.
For
Baghdadi has been careful to organize ISIS in such a way that power is
highly decentralised, with a clear division between those responsible
for administering territories the terror group controls and those who
direct its military operations.
ISIS
has been careful to include many Sunni tribal figures in
administration, precisely to pre-empt any U.S. attempt to trigger a
tribal uprising against them, a strategy the Americans pursued against
Al Qaeda in Iraq (ISIS’s forerunner) in 2007-08 with some success.
Targeted: Baghdadi was reportedly
wounded on Friday night when American warplanes hit a ten-car ISIS
convoy like this one southwest of Mosul, which functions as ISIS's
capital in northern Iraq (file picture)
ISIS’s
military command includes at least two Sunni Muslim Iraqi army generals
on the run since the Saddam era, who clearly have considerable tactical
ability.
ISIS has used lightning advances and exemplary terror as well as suicide bombers to destroy enemy command and control centres.
They
also use the destruction of bridges and controlled flooding to shape
battlefields to their choosing, and the deployment of roadside bombs and
embedded tanks to inhibit countermoves by their Iraqi or Kurdish
opponents.
So
far, the U.S. response has been to remove the unpopular Shia prime
minister of Iraq, to reduce the alienation of the country’s Sunni and
limited efforts to restore the fighting morale of the Iraqi national
army, which, poorly led, effectively fled from this ferocious opponent.
The
only effective obstacles to ISIS taking over the country have been Shia
militias in Baghdad and further south, and the Kurdish peshmerga in the
north.
Although
the U.S. has added a further 1,500 military advisers, bringing their
total strength to over 3000, they have to be careful since the same Shia
militias are restive about a renewed U.S. ‘occupation’ of Iraq.
American airstrikes have been criticised as a drizzle when what is required resembles a cloud burst in a thunder storm.
Taken
out: According to Iraqi sources, parallel attacks on Qaim in Anbar
province (above) killed one of the terror group's top strategists in a
predominantly Sunni region where ISIS has made huge military advances in
recent weeks as the world’s attention was distracted by its relentless
siege of Kobane in northern Syria
So
far there have been an average of five strikes a day, compared with 50
in Libya in 2011, 85 in Afghanistan, and 800 a day in Iraq itself during
the 2003 US-led invasion.
So far, only 800 of the 3, 200 sorties over Iraq and Syria have actually involved dropping bombs or firing missiles.
Until
these raids at the weekend, there has been an absence of actionable
intelligence from the ground, while Pentagon lawyers are being ultra
cautious about avoiding any civilian casualties.
The
long distance planes have to fly from bases in Qatar or the UAE, or
from carriers in the Persian Gulf, also makes it hard for them to loiter
looking for targets of opportunity.
So
while it would be a significant blow to ISIS to lose its self-styled
Caliph, he is replaceable in what in practice is a collective leadership
with many experienced and hardened personalities. And he may yet rise
from ‘the dead’.
SOCCER-LOVING PHD STUDENT WHO BECAME WORLD'S WORST TERRORIST WITH $10 MILLION BOUNTY ON HIS HEAD: WHO IS ABU BAKR AL-BAGHDADI?
Prisoner: al-Baghdadi, shown before his rise to power, was held as a prisoner by the U.S. during the occupation of Iraq
Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi is the relatively discreet leader of the Islamic State extremist group.
He used to play for his mosque's soccer team and has a PhD in Islamic history.
But
after spending four years in a US camp during the Iraq occupation, he
emerged as one of the most brutal terrorists in the world.
The
government placed a $10 million bounty on his head in 2011 when
intelligence identified his movements as critically dangerous.
This
warrant was publicized once more following the beheadings of US
nationals James Foley and Steven Sotloff as well as Britons David Haines
and Alan Henning.
He
maintained a low profile for months as ISIS, the group's original name,
rose to global infamy and Al Qaeda denounced them as 'too extreme'.
But he finally revealed himself to the public with a speech, filmed and posted on YouTube, in the first week of July this year.
Born Awwad Ibrahim al-Badri al-Samarri in 1971 near Samarra, Iraq, he came from a Sufi family - a tolerant form of Islam.
In the 1990s, he completed a PhD in Baghdad and played soccer with friends.
But he fell out with mosque leaders and fled to Anbar province where he joined Sunni groups protesting the US occupation.
American
forces detained Baghdadi at Camp Bucca in 2005 shortly after the Iraq
invasion. He was released when the camp closed in 2009.
He was thought to be 'bad but not the worst' sources told The Daily Beast.
But he then joined the Islamic States of Iraq and Syria, and rose up the ranks rapidly.
After allegedly killing the leader, Abu Omar Baghdadi, he took hold of the terror group.
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